Minggu, 22 Januari 2006

Any War With Iran Would Be similar To WWII Japan

Unlike Iraq, which Senator Joesph Biden has referred to as like a "Lebanon on steroids", any conflict with Iran would be like a conflict with WWII Japan. What Iran lacks in military hardware it makes up in fanatical devotion of millions of Iranians and in the devotion of three million in forces such as the Revolutionary Guard and other branches of the Iranian military.

Just like Japan of WWII, which heavily lacked military hardware Iran's greatest assets are fanatical suicide missions and the use of other extremist lowtech warfare. Even the Iranian U.N. mission had two members expelled in recent years who were suspected of providing intelligence on high value targets for Iranian backed terrorism in the U.S.

Diplomacy is the best asset for now because the Iranian nuclear research sites are deeply buried in "bunker buster" proof deep bunkers. Israel ruled out military action this summer because of this intelligence finding.

And the role of China or Russia in any military attack on Iran must be secure. During the attack on Yugoslavia it was thought Russia was on board, but then a near war talk dialog from Boris Yeltsin told Clinton in the strongest possible terms that were unhappy once the U.S. attacks started. The U.S. cannot afford another communication misunderstanding of this sort.


And just like Iraq, or Japan in WWII, the possibility of a U.S. troop invasion could endanger U.S. forces to a high level, as well as harm any Iranian hopes for future democracy. Terrorism against U.S. , U.N. or Nato troops could be very high.

The U.S. really needs to weigh all the possible consequences. This cannot be another series of miscalculations like Iraq. Iran can be the most serious problem since WWII Japan. And that is not good at all and deserves serious thought of all the ramifications before any military involvement there.

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