Minggu, 08 Januari 2006

Mr. Bush challenges Al Qaeda To A Battle Of Wills, But Then Backs Down From The Fight

One of the most dangerous things that a nation can do is to challenge a weak opponent to a battle of wills, and then the stronger power backs down from the challenge. This has happened with France in Vietnam after WWII. It happened with the U.S. in Vietnam after the French withdrew. It happened with the failed Soviet invasion in Afghanistan to far weaker Mujahideen fighters. But it was the failed British effort to occupy Iraq that started in 1922, that ended in failure in 1958, that has acted as a role model for U.S. failure in Iraq.

In a new video, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahri, the second in command in Al Qaeda is claiming a military "victory" over the U.S. in Iraq because the U.S. is intending to draw down some forces from Iraq in 2006. This hardened veteran of the Afghanistan War with the Soviets, who was even wounded in combat there, knows much about outlasting the will of a stronger opponent. Weaker opponents of the U.S. know they can outlast the will of the American people or government. Both the government and people of the U.S. make broad boasts of how powerful that we are, and how we'll beat any small opponent. But as a conflict drags on with American dead and an economic drag, the U.S. always walks away from the fight, no matter how weak the opponent. Weak opponents of the U.S. have sized the U.S. up as the "paper tiger" that Asian communists had once claimed.

This is a deeply depressing factor, because it means that the U.S. invites more organizations such as Al Qaeda to act against the U.S. or U.S. allies. Establishing a war of wills, in which the U.S. never fully intended to stand head to head with an opponent in a war of wills, and then being seen as backing down only encourages more opponents of the U.S. to act.

The U.S. was never in any position to fulfill a battle of wills with Al Qaeda or other Islam insurgent forces in Iraq. With no military draft such as in WWI,WWII, Korea or Vietnam, and a full 40% of forces in Iraq are National Guard units, only equipped for response to state natural disaster or mountain rescue response, then large numbers of U.S. forces in Iraq such Oregon's thousands of National Guard members were sent into a combat situation wit severe shortages of combat goods such as ammunition, radios, body and Humvee armor.

When Mr. Bush changed the mission in Iraq from one of ridding the nation of Saddam Hussein, but then made the mission a challenge to Al Qaeda, there was the not military preparation or manpower forces to fight a long and protracted war with insurgents and Al Qaeda in Iraq. Britain fought a losing war with insurgents in Iraq from 1922 until 1958. Japan and Germany could be defeated, but not Iraqi insurgents who continued to battle Briitish forces for a full 13 years after WWII ended. The battle with Iraqi insurgents and ethnic tensions lasted from after WWI until well after WWII. A full 84 years. The U.S. never had the will or economic strength to fight another 84 years in Iraq when Mr. Bush laid down the gauntlet to Al Qaeda. This was a challenge that the U.S. should never had made.

Besides the military and equipment shortages that doomed any long term challenge of Al Qaeda or insurgents in Iraq, economic realities doomed this challenge to Al Qaeda from the beginning.

In just five years, Mr. Bush has accumulated a foreign debt of $1.09 trillion dollars, more than the $1.01 trillion dollars in foreign debt that it took 42 American Presidents 242 years to achieve.

Foreign states such as Japan hold $682 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. China holds $248 bilion in U.S. Treasury bonds. Other states including South Korea and and the Caribbean hold the remainer of the $1.09 billion in new and accumulated foreign debt that keeps the U.S. government from financial collapse and bankruptcy.

With a national debt of $8.1 trillion in national debt against a U.S. Treasury income of just $2.2 trillion in income, the U.S. was never in any economic position to fight a protracted war in Iraq that already has cost the nation $232 billion in just three years. Even a claimed bill in Congress to cut the U.S. budget deficit by $40 billion only proposed to do so by cutting social services to the elderly, poor and handicapped over a five year period, but then included a $70 tax cut that mainly benefits the wealthy, so the net effect of the bill is another $30 billion dollar increase in the Federal budget deficit.

There was never the will in the Bush Administration or with the American people to fight an ethnic war or a war with terrorist organizations in Iraq for another 84 years, since the establishement of Iraq by Winston Churchill in 1922 as a British occupation state of three ethnic groups with nothing in common. Since 1922, the ethnic conflict in Iraq has been constant.

Mr. Bush used overheated political rhetoric to bash critics of his war in Iraq, claiming that an early withdrawal would send a dangerous signal to terrorist and insurgent forces. Yet it is Mr. Bush himself which destabilized Iraq with military action to topple Saddam Hussein, then changed the mission to a challenge of wills with insurgents such as Al Qaeda, and now is withdrawing some troops due to military manpower, equipment, economic and political realities. There was never the will of the American people, let alone the Bush Administration to battle Al Qaeda for decades in Iraq. Now with Al Qaeda already declaring a "victory" in Iraq, this dangerous terrorisyt organization appears to be emboldened by the perception of the backdown of American will in Iraq. This truly is dangerous.

Sabtu, 07 Januari 2006

NBC Becomes A Real Life Version Of THE PRODUCERS

In the classic Mel Brooks story, THE PRODUCERS, two scheming broadway producers oversell shares in a broadway play, and pick the worst possible play, playwrite, director and actors to insure that the play is a flop so they can clean up in their crooked scheme.

In the NBC version there is a similarity in that the network has decided to cancel some of the most effective Friday night programs such as THIRD WATCH, LAW AND ORDER:TRIAL BY JURY or even the acceptable MEDICAL INVESTIGATION to make room for a schedule of shlock such as the quickly cancelled, INCONCEIVABLE, which truly was, the syruppy, Amy Grant program, THREE WISHES, and now the worst yet, THE BOOK OF DANIEL. Along with moving the effective comedy MY NAME IS EARL up against the world's most popular program, CSI, so it can be savaged in the ratings, NBC has taken a cue from THE PRODUCERS on how to drive the network ratings into the trash barrel.

NBC managed to drive up ratings during a weak network programming week with the efective game show, DEAL OR NO DEAL with comic Howie Mandel, but ended this series after the week, and is now going with at least one new show, THE BOOK OF DANIEL, which seems to fail on so many levels.

THE BOOK OF DANIEL quickly reminds the viewer of a fifth rate version of DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES, with characters nearly as morally challenged as those on MY NAME IS EARL or the shirtless morons on COPS. But that isn't the worst part of this turkey. It's the absurd modern portrayal of Jesus in this program that is likely to enrage most Christians. After the events in West Virginia, in which the Governor and miner's families really inspired faith in God and a value to prayer, and world prayers are for MidEast peace, if not for Israeli Prime Minister Sharon, NBC decided that airing a program with an absurd Jesus portrayal was the right time. If anything, this really starts this program off on a wrong foot.

In THE PRODUCERS, the worst possible play, SPRINGTIME FOR HITLER was chosen to drive away audiences. At NBC, some network geniuses must have decided that THE BOOK OF DANIEL was a great way to create controversy, drive away viewers, create consumer boycotts from some religious groups, and to offend after a week in which prayer time with God was a central part of the lives of many due to the very nervous, sad and dangerous events.

Maybe at 12:35 in the morning, NBC can get away with programming such Conan O'Brien who often competes with infomercials with a low budget talk show that often features Abe Vigoda, Dr. Joyce Brothers or Al Roker as guests. But while Friday is often a ratings low evening, CBS proved that with effective programs such GHOST WHISPERER, CLOSE TO HOME and NUMBERS, if you offer worthwhile television fare, viewers will come. Instead, NBC has chosen to make both Friday and Saturday nights a real dumping ground. Friday's discards are the worst odd television shows that don't fit in on other nights. And Saturday is a potluck of the best repeats of some popular shows, but without a viewer often aware what's up for the evening. Both are ratings low drags on NBC.

Whether THE BOOK OF DANIEL draws an audience does not seem very likely to me. I can usually smell a clunker a mile away. MEDICAL INVESTIGATION, another recent Friday night NBC failure was like a weak CSI ripoff, but at least watchable. THE BOOK OF DANIEL just seems to have the kiss of doom written all over it.

A bad religious comedy like THE BOOK OF DANIEL is just enough to keep NBC locked in ratings hell.

Jumat, 06 Januari 2006

U.S. Average Wages Lag Far Behind Many Western Nations

Mr. Bush is on the road promoting what he claims to be "good news" regarding U.S. employment. However, there is far more involved in any discussion of economics than mere employment numbers. In the American capitalist economy, workers and wages are supply and demand commodities. When wages become low enough, more workers will find employment, but at lower wages as they can be hired at bargain prices.

Compared to many Western world average wages, the U.S. lags far behind many states. The U.S. average wage of just $33,195 compares very poorly against the averages wages of Germany at $50,445, $46,541 in the U.K., $45,879 in France, $45,839 in Japan and even the $38,259 in Ireland, once thought to be one of the world's poorest nations because of the old economy destroyed by the potato famine.

And as the world economy becomes more globalized, foreign nations take advantage of cheap American labor to build their products. Americans become the low wage "Chinese" labor for wealthy states such as Germany and Japan to build their products. Germany's BMW for example takes advantage of the low wages paid in "right ro work" states such as South Carolina and pays far less to workers in this state than worker receive in Germany for building the same products. And Japanese manufacturers also take advantage of lower American wages to build their products. In both cases while some lower wage income jobs remain behind in America with some local benefit, most of the product value sold in America flows to foreign nations and increases their wealth compared to the U.S. It is in this way that states like South Carolina are kept near the bottom of state per capita income by a continued culture of low paying jobs, and become attractive to foreign states to increase their wealth comparable to the U.S.

While Mr. Bush attempts to claim that his tax cuts are somehow responsible for increased American employment figures, and should be made permanent, there is no real hard evidence to support this politically moltivated premise.

If anything, there is better evidence of other economic trends such as major job layoffs at GM, more job outsourcing as more U.S. companies fall victim to unfair foreign economic competition, and trends of increased competition over tightening supplies of oil, wood, steel and aluminum with China that all hold promise for increased prices in 2006. OPEC will decide on oil production cutbacks this month, and the price per barrel for petroleum has increased to $60 a barrel again. And China has decided to relax regulations in 80 Chinese cities that restricted the number of automobiles allowed. More and more Chinese automobiles will be produced in China and compete for declining world oil supplies and production output in 2006.

And there is so much political uncertainty in Israel where Binyamin Netanyahu may benefit from a death of Israeli leader Sharon. Netanyahu would likely attack Iran in response to their nuclear program and this could impact the flow of oil from the MidEast as Iran controls the Strait Of Hormuz.

There is very thin reasons for Mr. Bush to credit his tax breaks for the increased employment figures. Wages have only become low enough that more workers have jobs, but their income lags thousands of dollars behind workers in other nations. The U.S. is still a prime area for foreign growth into our economy as some foreign states become more powerful at the expense of U.S. nationalism.

Kamis, 05 Januari 2006

One Of America's Worst Workplaces

The tragedy at the West Virginia, Sago mine illustrates the dangers of bad workplaces in America. This nonunion mine which operates for lower wages in one of West Virgina's poorest areas has had a long history of far worst than usual safer standards. In the last three years this mine has had more than 273 safety violations. In 2004, these included 18 incidents of roof falls.

There were 18 recent violations which included D Orders. These desist orders prevented any more work in the mine until the safety violations were corrected.

But as bad as these past incidents are, conditions actually improved somewhat under the current mining company led by CEO Ben Hatfield. For only the last two months has this new company been operating the mine.

While these problems with the mine no doubt greatly contributed to the deadly mine accident, yesterday's actions where Hatfield or other company officials failed to issue a statement when they knew that the earlier belief that 12 of 13 miners may not be alive, 45 minutes after this wrong message was believed to be true for nearly three hours was outrageous.

It was the duty of this company to issue a guarded statement when it had information that was important. Both the Governor and a Congresswoman were kept in the dark about the new information, and appeared to be credible sources where some newspapers such as USA today actually went to press with wrong headlines and storylines. It was only the third time since 1972, the newsmedia had bad sources that wrongfully reported a life or death story.

In the 1972 attack in Munich on the Israeli athletes, Sports reporter Jim McKay made a reporting mistake based on bad sources. In the 1981, in the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan by a mentally ill man, Reagan's press secretary James Brady was wrongfully reported to have been killed by his head wound. However it later turned out that Brady was very seriously wounded and left injured and disabled by his serious wound. The bad sources that misled USA Today to others to go to print with a wrong story and headlines must be blamed on the mining company withholding information.

Conservatives on some Websites used this error to again attack the newsmedia, yet some Websites themselves printed the wrong story based on the correct information that the mine company refused to issue until hours later. Many of the same Websites and their conservative supporters were able to bully CBS into firing some news executives over a story about Bush's National Guard service claiming that the form of type was not used in 1971, yet new information proves that since 1969 that form of type was available.

While the awful handling of information by the company did not contribute to any deaths of the miners, it did still contribute to added emotional suffering for the families who were waiting for word on their loved ones.

While the current mine company run by CEO Ben Hatfield is supposedly better than the previous company, still the fact that this nonunion mine has three times the accident injuries and deaths of most comparable union mines is a very important factor. This company should run a union mine with better safety conditions and better wages. Some like Dan Kane of the United Mine Workers offers a strong case of the safety and wage advantages of union mines. A worker who has safety concerns can make a complaint without a fear of job loss through their safety representative, and this is more likely to result in a safety remedy to a life-threatening problem than in nonunion mines where workers live in fear of being fired if they complain about a serious safety problem.

Unionization of mines is an important goal towards securing better safety, wage, health care and retirement benefits for mine workers.

Rabu, 04 Januari 2006

People Of South Park, I Declare Shenanigans, Grab Your Brooms

On a famous second season epidode of South Park, during the annual Cow Days it turned out the games at the carnival were rigged and a big joke on the players who were ripped off. Officer Barbrady declared "shenanigans" and told people to get their brooms. And on MTV, Ashton Kutcher's elaborate mean trick show, builds on Candid Camera by labored and elaborate tricks played on celebrities. Tuesday fell somewhere between the two popular culture programs.

In the worst heart breaker there was a claim that 20 minutes after mine officials knew that most of the miners were found dead in the West Virginia mine tragedy, thay sat on the information for about three hours before offering the truth at a press conference. Understandably joyous jubilation turned to anger and sorrow. It was as if the whole nation, especially the families had been "punk'd".

It was almost too much of an emotional roller coaster to even watch. A deeply sad heartbreaker made worst by the knowlege of this futher problems by the management of this mine that went from 68 safety violations in 2004 to 208 violations in 2005. The nation and the grieving families who especially feel betrayed are ready to "declare shenanigans".

Jack Abramoff, a major lobbyist plead guilty to stealing tens of millions from Native American casinos, and using the money to bribe public officials. Abramoff was a strong friend of Tom Delay, who has run to Christian churches for support for the felony indictment that he faces. Abramoff may implicate as many as 20 Republican and Democratic members of Congress in criminal bribe activity. Abramoff was a Bush Pioneer, a part of an elite group of supporters who contributed more than $100,000 to the Bush campaign. With the criminal plea of Abramoff and the factbthat as many as 20 Congress members may be implicated or even brought down, it was as if the nation declared "shenanigans" on corruption in Congress and is ready to get their brooms.

Almost daily, the Bush Administration misleads the nation on "how good" things are going in Iraq. But Tuesday it was announced that the election results would be delayed again because of more than 2,000 allegations of fraud. And a suicide bombing at a funeral of all places killed 36 and wounded 40.

All of these heartbreaking and emotionally depressing elaborate string-alongs make one feel like a victim of the elaborate dirty tricks on the "Punk'd" program, but also make one want to "declare shenanigans" and grab their brooms.

Selasa, 03 Januari 2006

Putin Pushes Russia In A Dangerous, Undemocratic and Strongarm Path

When Boris Yeltsin chose former KGB officer, Vladimir Putin, as his handpicked successor, he no doubt expected that Putin would be young enough, strong enough and devoted to a sustained path of Russian democracy. Instead in the name of stemming "terrorism" and other evils, Putin has become a strongman moving Russia far from democracy.

In 1991 when the Communists attempted their coup against Mikhail Gorbachev, Putin resigned from the KGB, and appeared to be a young democracy advocate. He soon became a young and trusted member of the second administration of Boris Yeltsin. With increasing health problems, Yeltsin eventually picked Putin as his successor.

But Putin has gradually drifted from democratic ideals, where the election for many offices has been eliminated. News is now under the control of Putin, where only positive news about Putin and the government are aired on Russian TV. Putin has sold China new warships with nuclear tipped "Sunburn" antiship cruise missiles designed to destroy American aircraft carriers. Russia has even developed a new form of hypersonic cruise missle designed to be able to defeat any American anti missile defense due to it's ultra high speed. Putin claimed the new missile was designed to fight "terrorists", but this new cruise missile hardly has any practical use of this sort. In many ways Putin has become a softcore retroStalin strongman.

And in a most serious new action of Putin, Russia has cut natural gas supplies to the Ukraine by 25%. This was after attempting to increase the price of natural gas by more than 400% to bring down the proWestern government of Viktor Yushchenko in the Ukraine, and to use natural gas as a political weapon to hurt this proWestern former Soviet Union state. This will impact natural gas imports to Germany, France, Italy and Hungary just at the time that Russia takes on the annual leadership role of the G8. Ukraine leader, Viktor Yushchenko was a victim of dioxin poisoning, a KGB type of politically moltivated attempted murder.

Cutting a vital natural resource to a nation has had disasterous effects in the past. The 6 Day War between Israel and several Mideast states was partially caused when Arab states began the construction of the Headwater Diversion Plan to cut down water supplies to Israel and Israel reacted to fight for it's survival. From 1965 to 1967 tensions built into full war between Israel and Egypt, Syria and Jordan. The 1990 invasion of Kuwait by Iraq was over an oil dispute of Kuwait illegally "slant-driling" oil supplies from a deep oil well that was largely under Iraqi territory according to Iraqi contentions.

The Western world wants very much to see Russia as a cooperative partner. The invitation into Western organizations such as the G8 were intended to encourage Russian democracy. But compared to the days of political freedom and democratic elections under Yeltsin, Putin has taken many steps backward. In the name of combating the Islamic Chechen terrorists, Putin will justify cutting into civil liberties, free elections and a free press. In the U.S., Mr. Bush will face a rocky 2006, as questions about the balance between fighting terrorism and civil liberties and the NSA spying will become major political debates this year.

With natural gas cutbacks mainly aimed at hurting Western states such as France,Germany and Italy. And efforts to bring down the government in the Ukraine and to extend Russian influence in former Soviet states such as this, Putin is straining his relations with the West to a near breaking point. He is drifting far from the expected democratic path and modern industrial partner the Western world had expected to develop in Russia. The Cold War of the old Soviet Union days has become a Cold Peace under Putin. Putin must decide which direction for his nation to take. But for now, it is hardly a positive one.

With the Shanghai Military Alliance with China and a handful of former Soviet Union states, and a friendship with Iran, Putin may be constructing the dangerous military alliance warned of in Ezekiel 37-39 in the Old Testament. Eventually Iran will lead the world into the most serious war ever according to clear warning of this important Jewish prophet who detailed the entire history of Israel in his important book of the Old Testament. It's up to Putin to do right by his nation and the world to make Russia a responsible nation that competes with industry and products, and commited to peace, and not a dangerous return to brutal militarism that could threaten future world peace.

Minggu, 01 Januari 2006

As GM and Ford Struggle To Survive, Import Cars Are Given Huge Tax Break

While the last two remaining American automobile corporations, General Motors and Ford struggle for their very life survival, and the U.S. foreign debt and national debt reach record levels, import hybrid automobiles will be given huge new tax breaks this year.

The national debt is at over $8.1 trillion dollars right now, against an U.S. Treasury income of just $2.2 billion. In 1965, this national debt was only a little over $300 billion. And it took 42 American Presidents 242 years to run up a foreign debt of $1.01 trillion dollars, Mr. Bush was able to run a foreign debt of $1.09 trillion in just five years. Japan holds $682 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, and China holds $248 billion. Other nations such as South Korea and states in the Caribbean hold the remaining share of the $1.09 trillion in auctioned bonds.

American industry is under terrible assault, with massive outsourcing and job cuts and layoffs. Even many airline employees now earn 40% less than they did in the year 2001. Benefit and pension cutbacks and other labor give backs are common in recent labor contract disputes, not a dispute over better wages or better benefits.

And despite this major seige on American industry and workers, import automobiles, one of the largest dollar value import goods will actually benefit from special tax benefits in 2006. While Toyota may sell in excess of 125,000 hybrid vehicles in 2006 such as the Prius, a $3,150 tax credit will be available for the first 60,000 sold, and then phased down on remaining numbers over the months. At the same time General Motors and Ford, who have few hybrid vehicles to sell, will mostly miss out on this tax credit. One of the few domestic vehicles to qualify is a large Chevrolet Silverado with just 17MPG, which is given a $650 tax credit.

They once said that "so goes GM, so goes the nation". This is still true. American industry is under a great seige from import products, and special tax credits aimed at further allowing imports to chip into American automobile sales will not help the serious financial situation that General Motors and Ford find themselves in.

But with the American government in a very weak position as a servant to foreign bondholders, and wreckless spending by Bush on the costly Iraq War and other areas, foreign lobby interests load up 1,000 page legislative bills that the U.S. Congress passes that most Senators or Congresspersons do not even read before voting on. Even current Chief Justice, John Roberts was a former corporate lobby attorney for Japanese carmaker, Toyota.

Imports already have many price, fuel economy and perceived quality advantages over many American products. Why special tax legislation to give a $3,150 tax credit to imports that already have market advantages along with up to a 25% saving in fuel due to hybrid technology deserve a special tax credit is a very good question. These hybrid vehicles will sell very well as OPEC cuts oil production later month and fuel prices will again increase. There is no need to give away huge tax advantages that mainly benefit import automobiles that are so popular that some Toyota and Honda models are on a waiting list basis.

But the power of foreign business lobby groups is increasing in Washington, where a former foreign lobby attorney is appointed as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and special trade benefit legislation abounds. American industry is a dying trade, just like the horseshoer, town cryer, cobbler or blacksmith. Too much indebtedness to foreign powers is hastening the decline of American industry and workers. And young consumers lack the product loyality to American brands that their parents or grandparents once had.

American industry and highly paid American factory workers are beginning to circle the drain. Usually in history no society survives much longer than 200 years. Like the Roman Empire, Babylon and other failed societies, our society is sowing our own seeds of societal destruction.