There appears to be a widespread view held in Washington that there is little way that Iraqi Prime Minister's Nouri al-Maliki's government can ever succeed in Iraq. This government is increasingly seen as ineffective at home in Iraq, and is seen by Washington as too deeply involved with corruption and dominated by Shia militia groups. More and more the name of Ayad Allawi is coming up as a viable and capable alternative. The only problem is how to corcumvent the failed experiment at Iraqi democracy and get Dr. Allawi into power. A short time aho I discusssed the possibility of a coup in Iraq. From behind the scenes, no doubt Washington is rethinking some scenarios by which Dr. Allawi can be brought into power, with or without the benefit of an election.
America's key to an exit of troops from Iraq is a stable government. A stable government can mean some relative peace to this sectarian strife torn state created by Winston Churchill shortly after WWI from three Muslim ethnic groups with nothing in common after oil was discovered in Iraq. With up to 220 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in Iraq, Iraq remains the most oil rich state in the world if peace and stability can be achieved there. The British effort after WWI and the latest American/British efforts are little more than old fashioned examples of colonialism, based on a search for oil assets in a backward part of the world. It would still serve every major purpose for someone who is seen as generally reliable and trustworthy such as former Baathist, Dr. Ayad Allawi to take up the leadership role in Iraq.
Allawi would have been the very best choice for Iraqi citizens to make in their first election, but with no tradition in democracy ever, and a widespread lack of literacy and education, it was the religious groups and militias that quickly were able to gain wide winning political strength over the far more capable and secular oriented Allawi. There is likely that a consensus is starting to build that in Washington as well as London that Allawi is the best way out for the military mess in Iraq, and the best shot at relative stability, reconstruction and the eventual oil industry of the U.S. and Britain to gain some control over Iraqi oil development. The oil industry would love to get back on this track by someone like Allawi providing stability to Ira, which means that democracy in Iraq may soon be pushed aside for at least some time to achieve this goal. This would mean that Iraq was simply not ready yet for democracy, with the failed election one prime reason why the Iraq situation has failed so badly.
Minggu, 19 November 2006
Senin, 13 November 2006
Iraqi Prime Minister Hopes To Arrange The Deck Chairs On The Titantic
Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, now claims that adjusting some cabinet positions is somehow the key to improved security in Iraq. This is hardly the answer to the declining security situation in Iraq.
Just last week, Maliki made statements that accused both Jews and Israel for the sectarian violence problems in Iraq, although not a single shred of evidence supports this outrageous and absurd view. The Iraqi parliament is dominated by many Shiite militia groups such as the one associated with radical antiAmerican cleric al-Sadr, and Nouri Al-Maliki draws his political power from these radical militia groups. Al-Maliki steadfastly refuses to clamp down on these milita groups or their death squad supporters. As much as 70% of the Iraqi police mat be aligned with Shiite militias that routinely abduct and kill Sunni citizans who hold only weak power in the Iraqi parliament.
Al Qaeda is simply too weak to ever control Iraq, as only about 500 Iraqi and 500 foreign fighters belong to this terrorist organization, but the total of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish militia members run into the hundreds of thousands, and far all intents have established a terrorist government, mainly of Shiite militia groups. American soliers have even been put under restrictions by the current Iraqi government, and told which militia groups they are even allowed to fight or attempt to disarm.
There is really no way for American soldiers to secure such a situation because of the problems the current government in Iraq causes and how this government actively promotes sectarian violence. Al-Maliki may think that blaming Jews for the violence or some minor cabinet post changes are what is needed in Iraq. But a whole new government, free of militia groups and massive corruption and inclusive of Sunni, Kurdish as well as Shiite members to promote a geniune peace and a real commitment to Iraqi security is really what's needed, not just some meaningless deck chair change on the Titantic.
Just last week, Maliki made statements that accused both Jews and Israel for the sectarian violence problems in Iraq, although not a single shred of evidence supports this outrageous and absurd view. The Iraqi parliament is dominated by many Shiite militia groups such as the one associated with radical antiAmerican cleric al-Sadr, and Nouri Al-Maliki draws his political power from these radical militia groups. Al-Maliki steadfastly refuses to clamp down on these milita groups or their death squad supporters. As much as 70% of the Iraqi police mat be aligned with Shiite militias that routinely abduct and kill Sunni citizans who hold only weak power in the Iraqi parliament.
Al Qaeda is simply too weak to ever control Iraq, as only about 500 Iraqi and 500 foreign fighters belong to this terrorist organization, but the total of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish militia members run into the hundreds of thousands, and far all intents have established a terrorist government, mainly of Shiite militia groups. American soliers have even been put under restrictions by the current Iraqi government, and told which militia groups they are even allowed to fight or attempt to disarm.
There is really no way for American soldiers to secure such a situation because of the problems the current government in Iraq causes and how this government actively promotes sectarian violence. Al-Maliki may think that blaming Jews for the violence or some minor cabinet post changes are what is needed in Iraq. But a whole new government, free of militia groups and massive corruption and inclusive of Sunni, Kurdish as well as Shiite members to promote a geniune peace and a real commitment to Iraqi security is really what's needed, not just some meaningless deck chair change on the Titantic.
Minggu, 12 November 2006
60 MINUTES Will Celebrate The Life Of The Great Ed Bradley Tonight
Tonight, 60 MINUTES will be mostly a tribute to their great friend, Ed Bradley. Bradley was a very great man and will be greatly missed from the series. Despite losing his hair to chemotherapy from his cancer, Bradley continued to offer some great late interviews including one with Howard Stern that was a lot of fun. But it was his many years of work that really defined the greatness of Bradley.
Starting out as a teacher, who also spun jazz records as a disc jockey, Bradley evolved into a reporter covering the Vietnam War and was wounded in a mortar attack. Later while reporting on the Vietnamese boat people, Bradley helped to rescue these people rather than merely report the story, and won a journalism award and quickly became a beloved journalist to many Americans. Bradley added a great deal to the reporting on 60 MINUTES, known for being a cool guy when interviewing musicians or singers like Mick Jagger, or being tough with business weasels who cheat the poor.
Bradley was a real class act, a very great man, and of great character and ability. 60 MINUTES just will not be he same without him. I strongly recommend that you set your VCRs or DVD recorders to record tonight's tribute to Bradley. You'll want to save this program .
Starting out as a teacher, who also spun jazz records as a disc jockey, Bradley evolved into a reporter covering the Vietnam War and was wounded in a mortar attack. Later while reporting on the Vietnamese boat people, Bradley helped to rescue these people rather than merely report the story, and won a journalism award and quickly became a beloved journalist to many Americans. Bradley added a great deal to the reporting on 60 MINUTES, known for being a cool guy when interviewing musicians or singers like Mick Jagger, or being tough with business weasels who cheat the poor.
Bradley was a real class act, a very great man, and of great character and ability. 60 MINUTES just will not be he same without him. I strongly recommend that you set your VCRs or DVD recorders to record tonight's tribute to Bradley. You'll want to save this program .
CASINO ROYALE Drawing Excellent Reviews In The U.K.
The new James Bond franchise film, CASINO ROYALE, is drawing excellent reviews from reviewers. mainly from the U.K. so far despite many reports of production related problems during the filming. Daniel Craig at first drew great concern among many loyal fans of the franchise after some reports that seemed to indicate that he was ill-suited to the role of James Bond. Instead, reviewers are now praising Craig as bringing an intensity to role, and being perhaps the most serious actor ever chosen for the role. Most reviewers now claim that Craig is either the best James Bond since Sean Connery or even better suited to the role than even Sean Connery. That's a very high regard.
In the past few years, despite good box office sales, Pierce Brosnan just hasn't seemed able to carry the role as well as one would have hoped. Brosnan certainly looked like James Bond, but something in his acting seemed to just miss with audiences. Brosnan certainly had the ability to carry the role with a little self-parody and humor, much like Rodger Moore had succeeded in doing, but even that seemed to miss with audiences. Instead, Bronan appeared to be barely adequate for the role, and the series began to grow tired. The last film seemed to be especially lacking in many areas, and was almost enough to end the flagging franchise. But actor Daniel Craig has taken an excellent script based loosely on the Ian Fleming novel, CASINO ROYALE, and produced a stripped down, prequel style of a James Bond film that critics are saying really works.
Craig has once again redefined the James Bond character with the no nonsense toughness of Sean Connery, but with more edge yet. With a basic storyline that avoids many of the gadgets of the later films, this prequel now stands as one of the best of the Bond franchise films and a real jolt to reinvent the franchise for the coming years. There will be great temptation to grow the franchise back into the overblown classics of absurdly outrageous villans, huge sets, silly gadgets and a parade of Bond girls. But with this new basic re-invention of the series working so well, any tinkering with this new formula must be carefully done. The film seems a little like the basicness of the early FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE, but achieved with far better skill and yielding great results. Overall a very good addition to the series, breathing new life into the franchise with a film that really works on many levels, including the excellent acting of Daniel Craig, a surprisingly good choice as the new James Bond.
In the past few years, despite good box office sales, Pierce Brosnan just hasn't seemed able to carry the role as well as one would have hoped. Brosnan certainly looked like James Bond, but something in his acting seemed to just miss with audiences. Brosnan certainly had the ability to carry the role with a little self-parody and humor, much like Rodger Moore had succeeded in doing, but even that seemed to miss with audiences. Instead, Bronan appeared to be barely adequate for the role, and the series began to grow tired. The last film seemed to be especially lacking in many areas, and was almost enough to end the flagging franchise. But actor Daniel Craig has taken an excellent script based loosely on the Ian Fleming novel, CASINO ROYALE, and produced a stripped down, prequel style of a James Bond film that critics are saying really works.
Craig has once again redefined the James Bond character with the no nonsense toughness of Sean Connery, but with more edge yet. With a basic storyline that avoids many of the gadgets of the later films, this prequel now stands as one of the best of the Bond franchise films and a real jolt to reinvent the franchise for the coming years. There will be great temptation to grow the franchise back into the overblown classics of absurdly outrageous villans, huge sets, silly gadgets and a parade of Bond girls. But with this new basic re-invention of the series working so well, any tinkering with this new formula must be carefully done. The film seems a little like the basicness of the early FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE, but achieved with far better skill and yielding great results. Overall a very good addition to the series, breathing new life into the franchise with a film that really works on many levels, including the excellent acting of Daniel Craig, a surprisingly good choice as the new James Bond.
Sabtu, 11 November 2006
Tower Records & The Decline Of The Record Store
Tower Records is much like other record stores, caught in a declining demand market for brick and mortar record stores that sell CDs where in 1992 roughly 5,000 record stores existed in the U.S., but now less than 1,700 remain in business today. Too much competition from online music sources such as downloads or low cost retailers such as Half.com have really taken the wind out of the sales of the traditional record store.
Tower Records will now close all retail stores in the U.S., but is keeping it's online website open. Part of the problem is that by keeping a massive catalog of slow selling back copy CDs, in high rent locations. It has always been a financial recipe for financial disaster, as most large retailers look for a good return per square foot of retail space as the rent is usually determined by square foot. Large big inventory record stores never do well in a declining market for records, where the large and slow selling back catalog becomes a prime reason for financial strangulation and tight cash flow problems. Smaller stores that deal with a specialty market or carry an inventory closer to the top sellers can sometimes better insulate itself against market contractions. For larger stores, the big inventory is impressive to browers, but makes little good financial sense.
It is deeply sad that Tower Records is disappearing from the scene. I bought some of my Doors albums from the Sunset Strip Tower Records, and many of my T.Rex import albums from another Portland location. A large inventory of imports and back copies of older records was always a Tower Records plus. For years, their collection of 45's was very impressive as well. It is deeply sad as a record fan to see such a great 1960's business like Tower Records fade into the Sunset. However, the www.towerrecords.com website remains one of the most fun websites to spend time checking out and listening to the short music samples. Some retailers of records in Portland, Oregon are now edging into buying used merchandise to sell along side their new merchandise to offer better prices. Retailers are having to find new ways to compete in a market where CDs are selling for about $16, with only two or three great songs, and buyers looking elsewhere like the internet to purchase single songs for ipods, etc.
Tower Records will now close all retail stores in the U.S., but is keeping it's online website open. Part of the problem is that by keeping a massive catalog of slow selling back copy CDs, in high rent locations. It has always been a financial recipe for financial disaster, as most large retailers look for a good return per square foot of retail space as the rent is usually determined by square foot. Large big inventory record stores never do well in a declining market for records, where the large and slow selling back catalog becomes a prime reason for financial strangulation and tight cash flow problems. Smaller stores that deal with a specialty market or carry an inventory closer to the top sellers can sometimes better insulate itself against market contractions. For larger stores, the big inventory is impressive to browers, but makes little good financial sense.
It is deeply sad that Tower Records is disappearing from the scene. I bought some of my Doors albums from the Sunset Strip Tower Records, and many of my T.Rex import albums from another Portland location. A large inventory of imports and back copies of older records was always a Tower Records plus. For years, their collection of 45's was very impressive as well. It is deeply sad as a record fan to see such a great 1960's business like Tower Records fade into the Sunset. However, the www.towerrecords.com website remains one of the most fun websites to spend time checking out and listening to the short music samples. Some retailers of records in Portland, Oregon are now edging into buying used merchandise to sell along side their new merchandise to offer better prices. Retailers are having to find new ways to compete in a market where CDs are selling for about $16, with only two or three great songs, and buyers looking elsewhere like the internet to purchase single songs for ipods, etc.
Jumat, 10 November 2006
Democrats Gained Some Vital Leverage In Ohio For 2008
Of all the states in the union, Ohio has become the kingmaker in all modern presidential elections. No modern president has been elected without winning Ohio. Democrats like Carter and Clinton won Ohio and the White House, as have all modern Republicans who have won the presidency. As Ohio goes, then so goes the nation. It is the best political barometer of all.
After 16 years of Republican governors, Democrat Ted Strickland was elected governor. Some analysts believe that a governor can move about three points of voters to their party during a presidential election. Democrat Sherrod Brown also defeated two term Republican Senator Mike Dewine. Democrats gained in the congressional delegation as well. And Democrats gained in statewide offices such as attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer, and while gaining seats in both the statew House and Senate, did fall short of taking over these chambers of government.
Ohio is unlike other big industrial states which are pretty much "blue" states. It is a swing state. But if Democrats can rule effectively in Congress and achieve goals that benefit the average citizen, then their chances in 2008 look pretty good in Ohio based on the 2006 election returns. In the grand scheme of things, Ohio is indeed the kingmaker of all the 49 states. So goes Ohio, so goes the nation.
After 16 years of Republican governors, Democrat Ted Strickland was elected governor. Some analysts believe that a governor can move about three points of voters to their party during a presidential election. Democrat Sherrod Brown also defeated two term Republican Senator Mike Dewine. Democrats gained in the congressional delegation as well. And Democrats gained in statewide offices such as attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer, and while gaining seats in both the statew House and Senate, did fall short of taking over these chambers of government.
Ohio is unlike other big industrial states which are pretty much "blue" states. It is a swing state. But if Democrats can rule effectively in Congress and achieve goals that benefit the average citizen, then their chances in 2008 look pretty good in Ohio based on the 2006 election returns. In the grand scheme of things, Ohio is indeed the kingmaker of all the 49 states. So goes Ohio, so goes the nation.
Al Qaeda Offers Another Video That Speaks Volumes About Their Weakness
Al Qaeda in Iraq offered up another video today that speaks far more about the weakness of the organization that it's strengths. There was an absurd claim that of 12,000 members, when all of the best intelligence estimates believe that no more than 500 Iraqi members and 500 foreign fighters are aligned with Al Qaeda in Iraq. That puts the Al Qaeda claim pretty far from accepted reality. It is the Shiite and Suuni militia groups that have members that can run into the tens of thousands per organization that are the real cause of most Iraqi violence, mainly of a sectarian nature in Iraq. Al Qaeda in Iraq now seems down to accepting responsibility for violence it has no part in. That's pretty pathetic.
And as another sign of weakness, senior Al Qaeda members are leaving Afghanistan for their native lands. While NATO has their hands tied up with a serious struggle, likely Al Qaeda is losing enough senior members with some real skills so they are better needed in other areas to recruit, rather than face eventual death at the hands of NATO forces. This also doesn't speak well for this organization.
But at the same time American and European intelligence should be concerned that this organization could attempt to pull off something dramatic to prove that they are still relevant as far as terrorist organizations go. There is little doubt that as many as 800 million of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims are antiU.S. or antiwestern to some degree, but there is great doubt that Al Qaeda represents very many of these Muslims.
Al Qaeda seems stuck in supporting low budget attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, sometimes using the same old weapons caputured from the Soviets in the war with them in Afghanistan in the 1980's, using old fighters from this war. Sending out a VHS to the media is a really low budget way to prove that they are still around, when Shiite and Sunni miltia organization violence is getting all the attention in Iraq, and Al Qaeda in Iraq is increasingly only a very minor player in Iraqi violence. When Al Qaeda hits the skids, VHS videos always seem to follow. It's down to that for this organization, which certainly proves that some progress has been made against this ruthless organization of cold blooded killers and disregard for life.
And as another sign of weakness, senior Al Qaeda members are leaving Afghanistan for their native lands. While NATO has their hands tied up with a serious struggle, likely Al Qaeda is losing enough senior members with some real skills so they are better needed in other areas to recruit, rather than face eventual death at the hands of NATO forces. This also doesn't speak well for this organization.
But at the same time American and European intelligence should be concerned that this organization could attempt to pull off something dramatic to prove that they are still relevant as far as terrorist organizations go. There is little doubt that as many as 800 million of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims are antiU.S. or antiwestern to some degree, but there is great doubt that Al Qaeda represents very many of these Muslims.
Al Qaeda seems stuck in supporting low budget attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, sometimes using the same old weapons caputured from the Soviets in the war with them in Afghanistan in the 1980's, using old fighters from this war. Sending out a VHS to the media is a really low budget way to prove that they are still around, when Shiite and Sunni miltia organization violence is getting all the attention in Iraq, and Al Qaeda in Iraq is increasingly only a very minor player in Iraqi violence. When Al Qaeda hits the skids, VHS videos always seem to follow. It's down to that for this organization, which certainly proves that some progress has been made against this ruthless organization of cold blooded killers and disregard for life.
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